Analysts Speculate Possible Rate Cut In The Making As Treasury Yields Fall

Source : All Headline News (AHN)
Date : Wednesday, August 21, 2007
Writer : AHN / Jacob Cherian

Washington, DC (AHN) - Treasury prices continued to climb Tuesday, pushing yields lower. The benchmark 10-year note was up, yielding 4.59 percent.

The rise in bond prices comes ahead of a key meeting between Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd.

Some analysts are speculating that a possible rate cut by the Fed is in the making, since credit markets were still nervous Monday, despite a cut in the discount window rate.

As of 11:54 am EDT, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.21 percent, the NASDAQ composite index up 0.39 percent, and the S and P 500 index gained 0.42 percent.

"Friday's discount rate cut by the [Fed] helped bring a little order to the Fed funds market but the slump in US Treasury bill yields signal that risk aversion amongst short-end investors is still intense," said Rob Minikin, an analyst at Lombard Research in London, reports CBS MarketWatch.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in an interview with CNBC, "We are going to work through this problem just fine," in an attempt to calm jittery investors on Tuesday.

Paulson stressed that the U.S. economy remains is fundamentally sound and that it should be able to withstand the turmoil in the markets.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs injected $2 billion into one of its hedge funds last week, signaling the contagion of credit problems beyond home mortgages to those with bad credit histories to other borrowers.

On Tuesday, in desperate efforts to quell the strain on markets, the Federal Reserve added another $3.75 billion into money markets in the latest of several cash transfusions totaling over $100 billion.

According to a report by Bloomberg, the Fed will not know if the August 17th cut in discount rates will have a calming effect on markets for several days. Fed officials say they expect some turbulence since banks are cautious about the collateral involved.

"What the Fed wants to do is buy time to sort these things out,'' said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Fed Chief Bernanke is trying to avoid a rate cut to the lending rate between banks, and aiming to stabilize liquidity in markets, say analysts.

The Fed doesn't want to bail anybody out,'' said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, reports Bloomberg News. "If they can get through the next couple of weeks, maybe cooler heads will prevail.''

Stocks Rally After Federal Panel On Credit Crisis Reassures Jittery Investors

Source : All Headline News (AHN)
Date : Wednesday, August 21, 2007
Writer : AHN / Jacob Cherian

Washington, D.C. (AHN) - After a closed-door meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Sen. Chris Dodd, (D-Conn.), said that the Fed is prepared to utilize all the tools available to address the credit crisis in the U.S. financial system.

Dodd currently the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee told reporters in Washington on Tuesday that he did not pressure Bernanke to lower the federal funds rate, reports CBS MarketWatch.

Stocks rallied after Dodd's reassurances that the Fed is ready to address the credit crisis that has been wreaking havoc on markets. By 1:13 pm Eastern, the Dow was down slightly, the NASDAQ was up 0.40 percent, while the S and P 500 gained 0.15 percent.

The Senator, who is seeking the Democratic party's nomination to the White House, said the meeting was positive, but urged the Fed to take action.

"It's time to act," Dodd said. "The ball is really in their court."

He also said banks should take advantage of the discount window rate cut that has been put in place for banks that borrow, since August 17. The central bank cut the discount rate half a percent to 5.75 percent to pump more cash to companies in need of short-term financing. However, Fed watchers speculate that it might take several days before the outcome of the slashed discount rates is known.

Dodd said, "A little more moral suasion would be helpful." Adding, "The Fed gets it and understands it," but "the Treasury doesn't," reports CBS News.

According to a Bloomberg report, interest-rate futures reveal that traders are speculating the credit crisis will eventually force Bernanke to ease monetary policy for the first time in four years.

Asian and European Markets Decline

Source : Time
Date : Friday, August 17, 2007
Writer : AP / Toby Anderson

(LONDON) — European and Asian stocks slid again Friday amid persistent fears about subprime mortgage lending troubles in the U.S. and its potential affect on the global economy.

The U.K.'s FTSE 100 fell 0.31 percent to 5840.50, as the benchmark index has lost 12.5 percent in the past month. France's CAC 40 index lost 0.43 percent to 5243.050 and Germany's DAX index was down 0.56 percent to 7229.510 as stocks failed to take a lead from a late rally on Wall Street on Thursday.

Some Asian markets saw early bargain-hunting, but began falling across the board on a worldwide selloff that has lasted more than a week.

"The fear factor has overtaken people," said Song Sen Wun, regional economist at CIMB-GK Research Pte. Ltd, but said cooler heads may prevail as early as Monday.

"Whether this is a case of blind panic remains to be seen," he said.

In Japan, a further fall of the dollar against the yen, which hurts Japan's giant exporters like Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp., sent the Nikkei 225 index crashing 5.4 percent to end at 15,273.68, its lowest close in a year.

Hong Kong's blue chip Hang Seng Index fell 1.4 percent, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index lost 3.2 percent after dropping 6.9 percent the previous session.

China's shares, which had been hitting new daily highs recently, fell for a second day Friday. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended down 2.3 percent at 4656.57 points, adding to a 2.1 percent loss the previous day. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 1.6 percent to 1297.21.

Credit Suisse Chief Strategist Shinichi Ichikawa said any bad news ahead, such as a bank abroad faltering, could worsen the market jitters.

"The next couple of weeks will be a very tough time for global financial markets," he said.

U.S. stock futures faltered Friday as investors nervously eyed the global declines. Although Wall Street had a late recovery to finish mixed Thursday — with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Thursday closing down just 16 points after falling more than 340 points during the day — there was little conviction in the market that could allow it to build on that momentum.

Earlier Friday, Japan's central bank injected 1.2 trillion yen ($10.5 billion) into money markets — the third injection this week and triple the amount it injected the day before — in a bid to curb rises in key interest rates.

Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Australia and Japan have injected tens of billions of dollars into money markets since Aug. 9, when stocks tumbled because of worries over U.S. subprime mortgage problems. So, far the extra money, meant to ease concerns about a credit crunch, has been unable to halt the global selloff.

A weaker dollar led some stocks down, as a lower dollar hurts Japanese and European exporters by reducing the value of their overseas earnings when converted back into local currencies. A weak dollar also makes Japanese and European exports more expensive abroad.

Toyota Motor Corp. fell 7.2 percent Friday, and Sony Corp. fell 6.8 percent. Suzuki Motor Corp. fell 11 percent and gamemaker Nintendo Co., which relies on overseas sales for much of its revenue, fell 9.7 percent.

Automaker DaimlerChrysler dropped 2.5 percent in Frankfurt, where supplier Continental AG lost 2.3 percent. Chemical company BASF fell 2.1 percent and Bayer declined 2 percent.

AP Business Writer By Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo contributed to this report.

Blowing up the Lab on Wall Street

Source : Time
Date : Thursday, August 16, 2007
Writer : Richard Bookstaber

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, August 16, 2007.

Looks like Wall Street's mad scientists have blown up the lab again. The subprime mess that is cutting so wide a swath through financial markets can be traced to the alchemy of creating collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) compounded by the enormous amount of leverage applied by big hedge funds. CDOs are derivatives — synthetic financial instruments derived from another asset.

Here's the recipe for a CDO: you package a bunch of low-rated debt like subprime mortgages and then break the package into pieces, called tranches. Then, you pay to play. Some of the pieces are the first in line to get hit by any defaults, so they offer relatively high yields; others are last to get hit, with correspondingly lower yields. The alchemy begins when rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings wave their magic wand over these top tranches and declare them to be a golden AAA rated. Top shelf. If you want to own AAA debt, CDOs have been about the only place to go; hardly any corporation can muster the credit worthiness to garner an AAA rating anymore. Here's where the potion gets its poison potential. Some individual parts of CDOs are about as base as bonds can be — some are not even investment grade. The assumption has been that even if the toxic waste bonds really stink, the quality tranches can keep the CDO above water. And life goes on.

The problem is that CDOs were untested; there was not much history to suggest CDOs would behave the same way as AAA corporate bonds. After all, the last few stress-free years have not exactly provided much of a testing ground for what can go wrong — until, that is, subprime mortgages started their death march. Suddenly, investors realized things can actually head south in a big way, even stuff completely unrelated to CDOs. Like your stocks.

It's not the first time this has happened, yet Wall Street still isn't getting the message. One August day nine years ago, Russian bonds defaulted. A surprising result of this default was the spectacular failure of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), a hedge fund in Greenwich, Conn. Surprising because LTCM had nary a penny in Russian bonds. They nearly took the global financial structure with them.

Today we're seeing another improbable linkage. A number of hedge funds are failing; others are seeing returns plunge. Among these is Goldman Sachs's flagship Global Alpha Fund, which burned a quarter of its $10 billion value over the last few weeks. And just as LTCM was free of the Russian debt that precipitated its collapse, Global Alpha was not a player in subprime junk. Indeed, Global Alpha's problems have not come from mortgages at all, but from a portfolio of stocks.

Why does this happen? Why is a hedge fund like Global Alpha affected by events in markets far removed from its bread-and-butter exposure? The root of the problem is high leverage. For example, when this debacle hit, one of Goldman's funds was leveraged 6 to 1, so every dollar of investor capital claimed six dollars of positions. This is the dry kindling for a market firestorm. When things go bad for a highly leveraged hedge fund, it gets a margin call and has to sell assets to reduce its exposure. Naturally, as it sells, prices drop. The falling prices mean a further decline in the fund's collateral, forcing yet more selling. And so goes the downward cycle. Hedge funds that hold the toxic CDOs can easily undermine those that don't. It can be difficult to sell the stuff that's causing the problem; those markets are beyond redemption. So if you can't sell what you want to sell, you sell what you can sell. The fund looks at its other holdings, focusing on the more liquid positions and reduces its exposure there. This causes pressure on these markets, markets that have nothing to do with the original problem, other than the fact that they happened to be held by the fund that got in trouble. Now that these markets are feeling the heat, other highly leveraged funds with similar exposure will have to sell. This leads to another cycle of selling, but in what was up to that point a healthy market unrelated to the initial turmoil.

As the subprime crisis propagates, it doesn't matter that some instruments are fundamentally strong and others are weak. What matters is who owns what, who is under pressure and what else they own. Hedge funds are constantly shifting their exposure, so it is difficult to predict the course a crisis will take. But if you are a highly leveraged fund precariously perched as these dominos fall — as Goldman's are today and as LTCM was in 1998 — you become part of the game. And if you are both highly leveraged and big, the problem that started in one insignificant little segment will now become your problem, and a much bigger one. Again, it's all about leverage. This is the case for crises in the past and will be the case for crises in the future. A world in which highly leveraged hedge funds share similar strategies makes it inevitable that what we are seeing now will occur again. And the more complex the strategies, the more surprising the linkages that will emerge.

Yet, incredibly, despite the risk this poses, no one keeps watch over leverage. No regulator knows how much leverage the hedge funds have or how that leverage is changing.

The lesson this time around with Global Alpha is the same as it was with LTCM. But we seem to be slow on the uptake. These funds hired the best and the brightest, yet they became embroiled in crises largely of their own making. If it could happen to them, it will happen again. And we'll all share in the consequences. Again.

Bookstaber has run a quantitative equity hedge fund and has overseen risk management at several large hedge funds and investment banks. He is the author of A Demon of Our Own Design (Wiley, 2007). He can be reached through his blog rick.bookstaber.com.